Revenue Forecast Calculator

Free Online Tool – Drug Revenue Forecast Model That Accommodates Multiple Indications and Basic/ Advanced Inputs

Building your own drug revenue forecast model from scratch is time consuming. Instead, you can test your product and market assumptions using our flexible revenue forecast tool below. First, decide on geography (U.S., EU5, or Japan). Then, start adding indications for your investigational therapeutic. The tool has built-in prevalence and incidence data for over 170 diseases.

For tips and clarifications, consult with information boxes next to inputs or send us a message. For real-world examples, check our multiple-choice questions below.

Max Annual Revenue:

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Tips on inputs

Begin by typing a disease name. Over 170 diseases are built into the tool, with corresponding Prevalence and/or Incidence rate data. You can toggle between Incidence- and Prevalence-driven indications using the double arrow.

Even if Prevalence/Incidence is available, users can always over-write it with their own data.

We update each country’s population and growth rates annually. The data is from Worldometers.

On Ophthalmology indications: We recommend that you consider the number of eyes, not the number of patients. Certainly, in many cases, both eyes are treated. However, sometimes, the second eye is not treated if a therapy is not effective for the first eye. Note that Ophthalmology Prevalence/Incidence data available within the tool reflects the number of people with these diseases, not the number of eyes.

Importantly, this calculator restricts doses to whole numbers.

To check your understanding of how the tool works, please scroll down to find multiple choice questions with real-world examples.

Tips on adding indications and Advanced Options

For more granular inputs, click on Advanced Options. Advanced Options include patient segmentation, tail revenue, pricing, and discontinuation parameters.

After entering parameters for the first indication, click “Add indication+” to add the next indication. Consequently, indication names will appear in the legend on the graph.

Tips on the graph

To find out Revenue for a specific year or a specific indication, hover over a corresponding bar on the graph.

Confused or stuck? Please send any questions, comments, and requests to bioheights@pm.me.

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Disclaimer: This model/ calculator is the property of BioHeights LLC. The model is designed only for educational purposes. This is not a financial advice. BioHeights LLC and its members are not responsible for anybody’s actions, losses, or damages resulting from using this model.

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Solve a Problem: SMA1 Pricing

You are developing a drug for Spinal Muscular Atrophy Type 1 (SMA1). You can treat all SMA1 patients with just a single one-time infusion. You have no competition. Assume: other parameters are default, except price; only U.S. market.

1. What is the price (per patient) you should charge for the drug if you must generate at least $500M in revenue by Year 5 after launch given incurred R&D and Commercial expenses and milestones/royalties commitments?
X less than $10,000
X $10,000
X $100,000
X $500,000
X $1,000,000
V more than $1,000,000

2. Does the price threshold depend on whether the drug can treat prevalent patients or only incident patients (new cases)?
X Same minimum price
X If prevalent patients, then price is higher
V If only new cases, then price is higher

Revenue Forecast Calculator

Solve a Problem: ALL Pricing

Solve a Problem: ALL Geography

Solve a Problem: SMA1 Pricing

Solve a Problem: SMA1 Geography